Synthetic data
Market balance
Compute is becoming a tradable commodity. This is its supply & demand balance — history since 2022, forecasts seven years out, split by how certain the supply is to arrive. Counted in thousands of H100-equivalent GPUs.
Latest measured month · 2026-07 (deltas vs prior month)
Effective supply
6,225k GPUs
▲ +3.1% m/mEffective demand
5,894k GPUs
▲ +2.2% m/mBalance
+331k GPUs
Utilization
94.7%
▼ −0.9% m/mCompute price index
2.43$/GPU-hr
▼ −2.5% m/mMarket balance — surplus / deficit by supply certaintyk GPUs
FIG.1Sn = cumulative supply S1+…+Sn (see Definitions). In history the three balances coincide — there is only one realized balance. In forecast they separate strictly (S2 < S3 < S4), widening with horizon.
k GPUs
month
Balance · S2 (committed supply)Balance · S3 (+ probable)Balance · S4 (max supply)
Supply by likelihood tier vs demandk GPUs
FIG.2k GPUs
month
Supply S1 · OnlineSupply S2 · CommittedSupply S3 · ProbableSupply S4 · SpeculativeDemand · historyD3 · Most likely